This is Chris Lundy of the Sawtooth National Forest Avalanche Center with your Backcountry Avalanche Advisory and Weather Forecast for Sunday, January 13, 2008 at 7:30 am. The Twin Falls District Bureau of Land Management & the Friends of the Sawtooth Avalanche Center bring you this advisory. Bottom Line: Today the avalanche danger is estimated to be CONSIDERABLE on slopes steeper than 35 degrees, and MODERATE on less steep slopes. Layers of faceted snow are plaguing us throughout our region. In the South and Central Valley, weak, sugary snow is widespread and can be found buried 1-2 feet deep. In wind loaded areas, the facets may be buried much deeper. As you head north and west towards Galena Summit, the western Smokies, and the Sawtooth Mountains, the distribution of the facets becomes more sporadic and very difficult to evaluate. In some locations, facets layers exist around 2-3 feet deep and also at the ground. Due to recent avalanche activity and the difficulty in evaluating our current avalanche conditions, a cautious and conservative approach is recommended. Sunny skies and warming temperatures today may increase the possibility of triggering a slide. Primary Avalanche Concern: Our current avalanche conditions are making me lose sleep. In the South and Central Valley, the pattern of instability is easier to understand. On nearly every slope, weak, sugary snow can be found buried 1-2 feet deep. While the snowpack is gaining stability, you could still trigger a slide on steeper slopes, especially if windloaded. Things get trickier when you head north and west of Ketchum, and thats where most people are heading. The distribution of the facet layers becomes more sporadic and less predictable. Where they exist, they are deeply buried and generally dont produce much results during stability tests. I know that a lot of skiers and riders are getting into steeper terrain and not triggering slides. In case you think were crying wolf, lets recap the avalanches that have been triggered the past four days: Wednesday: East Bowl Butterfield, remotely triggered by skiers, 150 feet wide, 2-3 feet deep (see photo below). Thursday: Eagle/Murdock Divide, remotely triggered by skiers on ridge crest, ran on the ground 6-8 deep. Friday: Large natural avalanches in Eagle Creek, Wilson Creek, and on Titus Peak (see photo below), all hundreds of feet wide. Plow triggered small pocket near Galena Summit. Saturday: Western Smokies, remotely triggered by skiers from 300 feet away, 300 feet wide, 2-3 feet deep. Also a small pocket was triggered on the west side of Galena Summit that dumped on the road, 50 feet wide, 1-2 feet deep. Im sure there are more avalanches we havent heard about. All of these avalanches ran on faceted snow, and the remote triggering aspect is alarming to say the least. Avalanche danger ratings such as Moderate and Considerable dont work well with our current avalanche conditions; neither really describes whats going on. With the variable distribution of the weak layer, the odds are in your favor that you wont find the slope that avalanches. But I would not be surprised if someone, somewhere triggers a slide today, and chances are it will be pretty big. Personally, I dont like Russian roulette and I dont want to be that person. I usually try not to preach, but I think the best bet is to make conservative choices by sticking to moderate slope angles and avoiding large terrain features that could produce unsurvivable avalanches. Its not uncommon for us to have tricky facet layers. The difference is how much of a load weve put on them recently. Over the past week or so, weve added almost as much weight to our snowpack as we did during the entire month of December. Unusual weather leads to unusual avalanche conditions. The bottom line is that facet layers exist, they are hard to evaluate, and they have produced large avalanches over the last several days. Current Conditions: Yesterdays weather was pretty ho-hum with moderate temperatures, light winds, and cloudy skies by the afternoon. Winds picked up for a few hours overnight but are currently fairly light, except on the high ridgelines near Soldier Mountain where theyre blowing 20-30 mph from the northwest. Mountain temperatures this morning are in the mid teens, and its 9 degrees in Ketchum. Mountain Weather Forecast: High pressure will build into our area today and tomorrow bringing mostly clear skies and warmer temperatures. Upper elevations temps should reach the mid to upper 20s, and the low 30s are forecasted for the valley. Ridgeline winds may continue to blow 10-20 mph from the northwest this morning, but should become light by the afternoon.