This is Chris Lundy of the Sawtooth National Forest Avalanche Center with your Backcountry Avalanche Advisory and Weather Forecast for Tuesday, January 15, 2008 at 7:30 am. The Wattis Dumke Foundation & the Friends of the Sawtooth Avalanche Center bring you this advisory. Special Announcement: A special thanks to everyone that has been sending in their backcountry observations and photos. They are invaluable - keep them coming! Bottom Line: Today the avalanche danger is estimated to be CONSIDERABLE on wind loaded slopes and MODERATE elsewhere. Layers of faceted snow exist on many slopes and continue to produce human triggered avalanches. In the South and Central Valley, weak, sugary snow is widespread and can be found buried 1-2 feet deep. As you head north and west towards Galena Summit, the western Smokies, and the Sawtooth Mountains, the distribution of the facets becomes more sporadic and difficult to evaluate. On leeward slopes, strong winds may be adding additional weight to an already suspect snowpack. Due to natural and triggered avalanches over the past 6 days and the difficulty of evaluating our current avalanche conditions, a cautious and conservative approach is recommended in the backcountry. Primary Avalanche Concern: Yesterday was day six of natural and human triggered slides. Skiers on Triple Peak in Lake Creek triggered a slab from a low angle ridgeline approximately 75 feet away (see photos below). The avalanche broke about 100 feet wide and 2 feet deep, running on faceted snow at the ground. They had received numerous collapses traveling on the bottomless and punchy snowpack. Another slide was triggered by skiers near Baker Lake. This group also remotely triggered the slide from a ridgeline, and it reportedly fractured 2-3 feet deep and was several hundred feet wide. The avalanche debris covered snowmobile tracks on a popular route south of Baker Lake. Ive also posted pictures of the avalanche remotely triggered by heli skiers last Saturday. A common thread with almost all of the recent human caused avalanches is that they have been remotely triggered from safe locations. This tells me that people are being careful out there by choosing conservative routes and not center punching large, open slopes. In light of the six fatalities over the past weekend in Colorado, Wyoming, and Montana, I think everyone around here deserves a pat on the back. We have some tricky avalanche conditions and I am psyched that our area has not contributed to the death toll. For information on the latest avalanche accidents check out http://www.avalanche.org/av-reports/index.html . Meanwhile yesterday I was on Butterfield where my stability tests produced no results, including ones performed next to a large slide triggered a week ago. I found facet layers in my snowpits, they just werent reactive during tests. In case you think us at the Avalanche Center are getting confused by our current avalanche conditions, let me say that I think the situation is quite clear. Stability tests are peripheral information compared to the direct evidence weve seen of triggered slides over the past week. In the South and Central Valley, weak, sugary snow can be found on almost every slope buried 1-2 feet deep. Further north and west, the distribution and stability of the facet layers becomes more variable, but you often find them buried near the ground and also about 2-3 feet deep. You need to consider the snowpack guilty until proven innocent, and its going to take a Harvard law school grad to make a case for innocence. Given the size of recent slides, being wrong in this case would likely have dire consequences. Despite the Moderate danger rating, I would still encourage caution in the backcountry by sticking to lower slope angles and avoiding large terrain features that could produce unsurvivable avalanches. Secondary Avalanche Concern: West to northwest winds increased dramatically overnight and are forecasted to continue through the day. These winds are likely transporting snow to the lee sides of ridges and gullies, and in some places may be adding additional weight to our already suspect snowpack. I wouldnt be surprised if this wind event results in a few natural avalanches. I would avoid any slope today with freshly deposited wind blown snow. Current Conditions: Despite some high cloud cover, mountain temperatures yesterday still reached the mid 30s and even warmer in some places. Overnight, a strong cold front pushed through our region bringing an inch or two of new snow, strong, gusty winds, and plummeting temperatures. This morning, temperatures in the high country are in the single digits to low teens. Winds on Titus Ridge are averaging 25-30 mph gusting into the 40s and 50s, and on the high ridges near Soldier Mountain theyre blowing 30-40 mph with a few gusts exceeding 90. Mountain Weather Forecast: We should see a decrease in clouds through the day as the cold front moves to the east, but weather models are showing that mountain temperatures should continue to decrease through the day. Currently, temperatures on Titus and Baldy are in the single digits and they may drop below zero by the afternoon. Ridgeline winds are also forecast to continue to crank along at 20-30 mph from the northwest with stronger gusts likely.