This is Tony Willits with the backcountry avalanche advisory issued by
   the U.S. Forest Service Glacier Country Avalanche Center at 8:00 AM,
   Tuesday, January 1st for the Glacier Park and Flathead and Kootenai
   National Forest areas.
   HAZARD ANALYSIS
   Between 5500 and 7500 feet of elevation the avalanche danger is
   currently being rated as MODERATE.  Below 5000 feet of elevation the
   avalanche danger is currently being rated as LOW.
   These danger ratings expire at midnight, Tuesday, January 1.  The
   outlook is for the avalanche danger to remain near the current levels
   for the next few days.
   Because of the general nature of this advisory message, each
   backcountry party will always need to make their own time and site
   specific avalanche hazard evaluations.
   WEATHER ANALYSIS:
   Temperatures since Friday have remained on the cool side ranging from
   15 to 20 degrees Fahrenheit, although in the past 12 hours several
   sites have recorded single digit temps. Snow accumulations occurred
   early in this advisory period and tapered off by midday Sunday with
   the exception of the southern Mission Range which was still gaining
   accumulations into midday Monday.   Snowtels indicated gains ranging
   from .5 to 1.9 inches of snow water equivalent (SWE).  Winds picked up
   some late Saturday and have been light to moderate at some locations.

   SNOWPACK ANALYSIS:
   Our backcountry observations Monday were from Noisy Basin on the
   Flathead National Forest.  The latest observation on the GCAC web page
   was recorded on Sunday.
   Soft new snow is the norm across the region.  Breaking trails or
   uptracks is a bit more challenging but is worth the effort.
   Stability tests on Monday were not revealing any crisp or clean shears
   with at least moderate forces to get results.  Cornices are building
   but were very difficult to observe due to poor visibility.  The
   rain/melt freeze crust interface is still a concern but more so at
   lower elevations, more likely below 6000 feet.  This instability over
   the rain crust is more reactive in shallower snow depths as an example
   around rock outcrops.  Two small slides were observed (late in the
   day) on east facing slopes in Noisy Basin one originating around a
   small rock band and have may have been skier triggered.  The other
   slide may have been triggered by a snowcat.  Both slides were below
   6000 feet and likely had a well established rain crust and had related
   instability with the new snow accumulations in the past week.

   AVALANCHE - INSTABILITY DESCRIPTION:

   Between 5500 and 7500 feet in elevation we are currently rating the
   avalanche danger as MODERATE ...unstable slab layers are possible on
   steep terrain. Natural avalanches are unlikely, while human triggered
   avalanches are possible. Backcountry travelers should use caution in
   steeper terrain on certain aspects.

   Below 5000 feet of elevation the avalanche danger is currently being
   rated as LOW...  snow is generally stable with only isolated areas of
   instability. Natural avalanches are very unlikely, while human
   triggered avalanches are unlikely. Backcountry travel is generally
   safe. Normal caution is advised.
   WEATHER FORECAST & AVALANCHE OUTLOOK:
   `
   Fairly mild conditions are expected through Wednesday in comparison to
   the weather pattern which we have experienced over the past few
   weeks.  High pressure will build over the area Tuesday and continue
   through Wednesday.  Valley bottom temperatures in some locations
   Tuesday and Wednesday  morning will be very cold due to the formation
   of strong inversions .  Lower  valley fog will also be possible.  The
   next chance for snow will be late Wednesday afternoon as a warmer
   weather system moves into the area.  Snow levels are expected to
   gradually rise through Thursday as warm aloft advects into the
   region.  In addition, breezy winds will cause a gradual warming in
   both valley and mountain temperatures through Thursday.
   Triggered avalanches are still possible.  More specifically be
   concerned with areas receiving new wind loading just below ridge tops
   or near rock cliffs or in chutes. This wind loading could be more
   likely on north and east facing slopes where wind slabs over a soft
   weaker layer may exist.  Another key area of concern is large
   triggers, i.e. snowcats, during high marking activities breaking down
   to the buried ice crust and causing a slide.  This will not always
   occur just at the highest elevations and could be a concern with the
   approach, more within a mid slope range on the terrain.  Potentially
   warmer temperatures and new heavier (because of water content not
   necessarily the amount) snow accumulations could overlay the softer
   weaker surface layer and create some concerns with instability late
   Wednesday or early Thursday.  Pay attention to new weather
   developments.

   Please note that this avalanche advisory is our best interpretation of
   snow pack conditions and National Weather Service forecasts on the day
   the advisory is issued. Unanticipated weather changes such as wind, a
   marked temperature increase, or precipitation beyond forecast amounts
   can increase the avalanche danger. Local variations may also exist.
   The next avalanche advisory will be on Friday, January 4th, 2008.