INTRODUCTION:
   This is Tony Willits with the backcountry avalanche advisory issued by
   the U.S. Forest Service Glacier Country Avalanche Center at 8:00 AM,
   Friday, January 25th for the Glacier Park and Flathead and Kootenai
   National Forest areas.
   HAZARD ANALYSIS
   Between 5000 and 7500 feet of elevation the avalanche danger is
   currently being rated as MODERATE. Below 5000 feet of elevation the
   avalanche danger is currently being rated as LOW.
   These danger ratings expire at midnight, Friday, January 25th.  The
   outlook is for the avalanche danger to possibly elevate on wind loaded
   terrain by late Saturday and/or early Sunday due to predicted winds
   and new snow accumulations.
   Because of the general nature of this advisory message, each
   backcountry party will always need to make their own time and site
   specific avalanche hazard evaluations.
   WEATHER ANALYSIS:
   Temperatures have stayed crisp and cold.  Yesterdays early morning
   single digits rose by noon and climbed into the 20's with the solar
   influence that we have been enjoying over the past few days.  Only
   light gains of .1 or .2 of snow water equivalent were experienced
   across the region.  Winds were light to moderate at ridge tops on
   Thursday with little transport occurring..

   SNOWPACK ANALYSIS:
   Our backcountry observations Thursday were from Kimmerely Basin on the
   Flathead National Forest, Bramlett Lake in the East Cabinets on the
   Kootenai National Forest.
   The cold temperatures have stiffened the snow pack adding tensile
   strength within layers into the mid pack. The exception to this
   strengthening, are the interfaces between these layers and especially
   within the surface 30 cms, where unstable angular or faceted grains
   are building with the strong temperature gradient (that is greater
   than 1 degree Celsius difference in temperature within 10 centimeter
   vertical increments) as a result of the cold air temperatures.  These
   weak interfaces near the surface will be a concern with the arrival of
   new snow accumulations and/or wind transport especially when greater
   than modest amounts.  Pit tests were varied within the surface 30 cms
   with clean crisp easy shears occurring on some north aspects and easy
   releases with less than clean crisp shear plains on some east
   aspects.  This is not unusual with variability across the landscape
   and even more importantly with variation with elevation on a specific
   slope.  This factor seems apparent in the recent Bozeman fatality from
   early accident investigations.  Locally natural releases that likely
   occurred prior to last Monday were occurring on mid slope locations
   while on the same slope upper elevation were remaining intact, as
   documented on the GCAC web site.  From a distance some avalanches ran
   big on west facing slopes (again likely prior to Monday) in the Park
   as observed from Kimmerely Basin.  Shallow snow packs especially
   around rock outcrops were producing small point releases on strong
   southern exposures in the Kimmerely Basin area on Thursday.

   AVALANCHE - INSTABILITY DESCRIPTION:
   Between 5000 and 7500 feet in elevation we are currently rating the
   avalanche danger as MODERATE...unstable slab layers are possible on
   steep terrain. Natural avalanches are unlikely, while human triggered
   avalanches are possible. Backcountry travelers should use caution in
   steeper terrain on certain aspects.

   Below 5000 feet of elevation the avalanche danger is currently being
   rated as  LOW ...snow is generally stable with only isolated areas of
   instability. Natural avalanches are very unlikely, while human
   triggered avalanches are unlikely. Backcountry travel is generally
   safe. Normal caution is advised.
   WEATHER FORECAST & AVALANCHE OUTLOOK:
   `
   A weak weather disturbance will bring increased cloud cover and light
   snow showers to the Northern Rockies Friday.  Little to no
   accumulations are expected.  Cloud cover will help to moderate
   temperatures to a slight degree.  The upper level pattern will become
   more active Saturday bringing a chance of heavier snowfall for the
   higher terrain Saturday night into Sunday.  Winds will increase aloft
   bringing some gusty winds to the mountain peaks.

   Check it out.  Following weather patterns and the results, what you
   are standing, are critical to making practical decisions with regards
   to traveling on steep slopes.  Dig out and use probes and feel how
   deep the December ice crust exists for the terrain you are traveling
   upon.  Look for signs of shallow snow pack around rocky  areas or
   convex rolls and avoid them.  When in doubt dig in and look for those
   surface weakness that could be a layer of failure.
   Please note that this avalanche advisory is our best interpretation of
   snow pack conditions and National Weather Service forecasts on the day
   the advisory is issued. Unanticipated weather changes such as wind, a
   marked temperature increase, or precipitation beyond forecast amounts
   can increase the avalanche danger. Local variations may also exist.
   The next avalanche advisory will be on Tuesday, January 29th, 2008.