INTRODUCTION:
   This is Tony Willits with the backcountry avalanche advisory issued by
   the U.S. Forest Service Glacier Country Avalanche Center at 8:00 AM,
   Friday, February 15th for the Glacier Park and Flathead and Kootenai
   National Forest areas.
   HAZARD ANALYSIS
   Between 5000 and 7500 feet of elevation the avalanche danger is
   currently being rated as CONSIDERABLE. Below 5000 feet of elevation
   the avalanche danger is currently being rated as LOW.
   These danger ratings expire at midnight, Friday, February 15th.  The
   outlook is for the avalanche danger to remain at current levels
   through the weekend.
   Because of the general nature of this advisory message, each
   backcountry party will always need to make their own time and site
   specific avalanche hazard evaluations.
   WEATHER ANALYSIS:
   Temperatures have warmed from the Sunday/Tuesday's warming/thaw
   event.  The temperature/rain induced warming from Tuesday has since
   cooled to the low to mid twenties.  The eastern portion of the region
   was a bigger gainer with 1.4 to 2.0 inches of snow water equivalent
   (SWE) predominately gained Tuesday and Wednesday.  The western portion
   of our region gained less than 1.0 inches of SWE.    Winds were modest
   to strong early in this advisory period but diminished to light by
   Wednesday and Thursday. .

   SNOWPACK ANALYSIS:
   Our backcountry observations Thursday were from the Beta Drainage on
   the Flathead National Forest, from McDonald Mountain in the East
   Cabinets on the Kootenai National Forest and Little Dog Mountain from
   Glacier National Park. As well obs were posted to the GCAC web page
   that were taken both Tuesday and Thursday.
   The cooling temperatures have helped to positively modify snowpack
   stability more so on sheltered aspects but bigger more open terrain
   needs more time to "modify".  Clean and snappy shears were occurring
   under soft wind slabs at or near ridge tops varying from 10 to 30 cms.
   from the surface.   The next most prominent instability on steep open
   terrain is the interface with the last bigger wind event about 3 weeks
   ago, which is giving clean shears but with more moderate force which
   will vary across the snowscape.  This layer is 50 to 70 cms down
   depending on locale.  The early December rain crust is  more of a
   concern on more southerly aspects where snow depths are more shallow
   as opposed to northerly aspects where it is more deeply buried and
   bridged over.

   AVALANCHE - INSTABILITY DESCRIPTION:
   Between 5000 and 7500 feet in elevation we are currently rating the
   avalanche danger as CONSIDERABLE...unstable slab layers are
   probable on steep terrain. Natural avalanches are possible, while
   human triggered avalanches are probable. Backcountry travelers should
   be very cautious in steeper terrain. Be aware of potentially dangerous
   areas of unstable snow.

   Below 5000 feet of elevation the avalanche danger is currently being
   rated as  LOW ...snow is generally stable with only isolated areas of
   instability. Natural avalanches are very unlikely, while human
   triggered avalanches are unlikely. Backcountry travel is generally
   safe. Normal caution is advised.
   WEATHER FORECAST & AVALANCHE OUTLOOK:
   `
   High pressure will influence our area on Friday.  A short lived
   weather disturbance will brush the region Friday night.  A strong
   ridge of high pressure is expected to build over the region Sunday and
   Monday.  Under this stronger ridge of high pressure valley inversions
   will intensify and mid slopes and ridges should warm significantly.

   The high pressure could give us some blue skies above the valley
   bottoms, so don't let the blue skies lull your party into complacency
   to just travel anywhere.  Previous wind loading is probably our key
   concern at present.  This wind loading was variable due to changes in
   wind directions with storm system deliveries and topographical
   influences.  Wind loading has been observed on most all aspects
   especially when cross loading is factored into the observations.
   Initially the warming could tip the balance on slope stability and
   create some natural releases on southerly aspects especially around
   rock bands.  As well cornices with warming at upper elevations in the
   coming days could fall with the weight and size that some have
   reached, which could initiate release on the slopes below.  Avoid
   convex rolls over known bare or rocky ridge top locations.  Do site
   specific observations to check for surface instabilities especially
   related to suspect wind loaded areas at least in the top 4 to 5 feet
   of the surface snowpack.
   Please note that this avalanche advisory is our best interpretation of
   snowpack conditions and National Weather Service forecasts on the day
   the advisory is issued. Unanticipated weather changes such as wind, a
   marked temperature increase, or precipitation beyond forecast amounts
   can increase the avalanche danger. Local variations may also exist.
   The next avalanche advisory will be on Tuesday, February 18th, 2008.