INTRODUCTION: This is Tony Willits with the backcountry avalanche advisory issued by the U.S. Forest Service Glacier Country Avalanche Center at 7:30 AM, Friday, February 29th for the Glacier Park and Flathead and Kootenai National Forest areas. HAZARD ANALYSIS Between 5000 and 7000 feet of elevation the avalanche danger is currently being rated as MODERATE. Below 5000 feet of elevation the avalanche danger is currently being rated as LOW. These danger ratings expire at midnight, Friday, February 29th. The potential is for the avalanche danger to escalate with new snow coupled with increasing winds over the weekend. Because of the general nature of this advisory message, each backcountry party will always need to make their own time and site specific avalanche hazard evaluations. WEATHER ANALYSIS: A light surge of new snow accumulations arrived on Thursday at most sites. Most sites received up to .4 of an inch of snow water equivalent. Temperatures have remained on the mild side but at least refreezing at night with temps into the mid to low twenties. Winds were light to moderate at ridge tops on Thursday. SNOWPACK ANALYSIS: Our backcountry observations Thursday were from the Noisy Basin on the Flathead National Forest and Burnt Peak in the West Cabinets on the Kootenai National Forest. The ten day drought trend may be interrupted with some new snow accumulations. This change started yesterday with rain in the valley grading into snow with elevation gain. The light amounts of new snow now overlay hard crusts, some near surface facets or surface hoar. Instability in the snowpack is primarily associated with the surface 20 to 30 cms. with recent snow and grauppel layers. Interfaces in these surface layers were reacting with easy forces but ragged shear planes. Below these surface layers settlement with crusts and melt freeze layers are solidifying columns which were revealed during stress tests. AVALANCHE - INSTABILITY DESCRIPTION: Between 5000 and 7000 feet in elevation we are currently rating the avalanche danger as MODERATE where unstable slab layers are possible on steep terrain. Natural avalanches are unlikely, while human triggered avalanches are possible. Backcountry travelers should use caution in steeper terrain on certain aspects. Below 5000 feet of elevation the avalanche danger is currently being rated as LOW where snow is generally stable with only isolated areas of instability. Natural avalanches are very unlikely, while human triggered avalanches are unlikely. Backcountry travel is generally safe. Normal caution is advised. WEATHER FORECAST & AVALANCHE OUTLOOK: ` High pressure and a warmer air mass will temporarily build over the region Friday. A vigorous Pacific weather system and cold front will impact the region late Friday night through Saturday. High pressure will gradually return Sunday. The lag in snow delivery in the last ten days is about to change at least for a brief period. This new change could reflect some increasing signs of instability by Saturday or early Sunday. As mentioned in recent past advisories near surface facets and surface hoar has been observed over surface layers that now with new snow will bury these and provide weak interfaces. In addition, although new snow fall is not expected to exceed the moderate scale, wind loading could tip the scales at or near ridge tops and harbor a stronger potential for triggered releases. Use caution in approaching steep open terrain in the next few days, especially where associated with terrain traps. Pit investigations will reveal weak interfaces and should be employed to determine snowpack stability. Please note that this avalanche advisory is our best interpretation of snowpack conditions and National Weather Service forecasts on the day the advisory is issued. Unanticipated weather changes such as wind, a marked temperature increase, or precipitation beyond forecast amounts can increase the avalanche danger. Local variations may also exist. The next avalanche advisory will be on Tuesday, March 4th, 2008.