INTRODUCTION: This is Stan Bones with the backcountry avalanche advisory issued on Tuesday, March 11, 2008, at 5:00 AM by the U.S. Forest Service Glacier Country Avalanche Center for the Glacier Park and Flathead and Kootenai National Forest areas. HAZARD ANALYSIS Between 5,500' and 7,500' elevation during periods of thaw, the avalanche danger is currently rated CONSIDERABLE on south and west facing slopes and MODERATE on north and east aspects. During times of surface refreeze the avalanche danger is rated LOW. Below 5,500 ' we're rating the avalanche danger LOW at all times. These danger ratings expire at midnight Tuesday, March 11th. The outlook is for the avalanche danger to remain unsettled through the week as new snowfall combines with warm daytime temperatures. Because of the general nature of this advisory message, each backcountry party will always need to make their own time and site specific avalanche hazard evaluations. WEATHER ANALYSIS: This past week Northwestern Montana continued to be teased by spring like weather conditions. Since last Wednesday the average daily air temperatures have steadily crept upward. Daily average mountain temps that were hovering in the low 20's Wednesday progressively warmed so that by Sunday they had risen into the low 30's. Then Monday under mostly clear skies, maximum temperatures were peaking well into the 40's at many mountain locations. Since last Wednesday our mountains have been mostly dry, with only trace amounts of new snow falling at a few scattered locations. Winds during the period have generally been light to nil. SNOWPACK ANALYSIS: Our backcountry observations Sunday and Monday were in the upper Bond Creek area in the Swan Range E of the town of Swan Lake, in the Noisy Basin area also in the Swan Range NE of Bigfork, and in Kimmerly Basin in the southern Whitefish Range NW of Columbia Falls. We had reports last Thursday and again on Saturday concerning skier triggered avalanches on northerly aspects in Noisy Basin. On Sunday we observed snowmobile triggered avalanches in Kimmerly Basin, also on north facing slopes. In fracture line profiles of all these slides, we found the common weak layer to be the buried surface hoar that was laid down in mid February. This is the weak layer we've been warning of over the last couple of weeks. Now nearly 3 weeks old, it has subsequently and gradually been buried 10-18" deep by storms involving both new snowfall and wind deposition. Often subjected to near melting temperatures since their creation, the surface hoar crystals have gained a fair bit of strength. But now sufficiently stressed by both the snow loading and by shear stress as the overlying surface slab deforms and creeps in response to the recent warming temperatures, it only takes disturbance from a skier or snowmobiler to trigger a slide. These slides are frequently occuring on very steep slopes in gladed locations. Avalanches in scattered trees pose a serious threat of trauma injury. In addition to the slab avalanching, we're also seeing loose snow instability as S and W facing surface snow weakens with mid afternoon solar warming. Snow falling from trees or rock outcrops or just weakened snow on very steep slopes can trigger wet point release avalanches as the snow surface rapidly warms and looses strength. AVALANCHE - INSTABILITY DESCRIPTION: We're currently rating the avalanche danger between the elevations of 5,500 and 7,500' as CONSIDERABLE on southerly and westerly facing slopes during periods of rapid thaw. Unstable loose surface snow is probable with rapid solar warming. Natural avalanches are possible, while human triggered avalanches are probable. Backcountry travelers should be very cautious in steeper terrain. Be aware of potentially dangerous areas of unstable snow. Between 5,500 and 7,500 ' elevation on northerly and easterly facing slopes the avalanche danger is rated MODERATE during periods of thaw. Unstable slab layers are possible, on all steep terrain. Natural avalanches are unlikely, but human triggered avalanches remain possible. Backcountry travelers should use caution, should always carry and know how ot use avalanche safety equipment, and expose no more than a single person at a time to any potential danger. Watch, feel, and listen for signs of collapsing snow. Between 5,500 and 7,500' on all aspects during time of surface refreeze and below 5,500 ft. elevation at all times, we're rating the avalanche danger as LOW. Generally stable snow exists with only isolated areas of instability. Natural avalanches are very unlikely, while human triggered avalanches are unlikely. Backcountry travel is generally safe, but normal caution is still advised on any steep slope. WEATHER FORECAST & AVALANCHE OUTLOOK: The weather forecast is for a disturbance and an associated cold front to brush our region Tuesday. There is a chance of another wave of moisture Thursday. Mountain rain and/or snow showers coupled with freezing and thawing temperatures and SW-W winds, should spell unsettled avalanche conditions this week. Backcountry travelers will need to be alert for a variety of changing snow surface conditions. Snow Instability should remain concentrated in the surface 24" of snow. The surface snow is currently in transition and needs time to significantly settle. The next regularly scheduled update of this advisory message will be Friday, March 14th.