INTRODUCTION: This is Tony Willits with the backcountry avalanche advisory issued by the U.S. Forest Service Glacier Country Avalanche Center at 8:00 AM, Friday, April 4th for the Glacier Park and Flathead and Kootenai National Forest areas. HAZARD ANALYSIS Between 5000' and 7000' of elevation we are rating the avalanche danger as MODERATE. Below 5000 feet of elevation the avalanche danger is currently being rated as LOW. These danger ratings expire at midnight, Friday, April 4th. The avalanche danger could escalate depending on if the current predicted weather system goes off track and sways more our way. Because of the general nature of this advisory message, each backcountry party will always need to make their own time and site specific avalanche hazard evaluations. SNOWPACK ANALYSIS: Our backcountry observations Thursday were from the Krause Drainage on the Flathead National Forest and from Blacktail Mountain in the East Cabinets on the Kootenai National Forest. Snowpack loading has been very light to nil since Tuesday. Daytime highs the last two days have aided in settlement of the snowpack. Unstable interfaces are associated within storm layers in the past week to ten days. Moderate to hard forces were required to instigate failures in pit stress tests. The only clean crisp shear planes were associated with buried ice layers at least in the midpack. Persistent weak layers in the midpack or below the midpack will linger on until significant warming occurs and could release big if warming was sudden and dramatic. AVALANCHE - INSTABILITY DESCRIPTION: Between 5000 and 7000 feet of elevation, the avalanche danger is currently being rated as MODERATE unstable slab layers are possible on steep terrain. Natural avalanches are unlikely, while human triggered avalanches are possible. Backcountry travelers should use caution in steeper terrain on certain aspects. Below 5000 feet of elevation the avalanche danger is currently being rated as LOW, snow is generally stable with only isolated areas of instability. Natural avalanches are very unlikely, while human triggered avalanches are unlikely. Backcountry travel is generally safe. Normal caution is advised. WEATHER FORECAST & AVALANCHE OUTLOOK: ` A ridge of high pressure will be the dominant feature over the Northern Rockies through Friday morning. Some mid and high level moisture will stream into the Glacier Park area over the ridge which will keep a few showers going especially during the afternoon and evening time frame. A warm air mass will make its way into the area on Friday allowing temperatures to reach seasonal norms. The atmosphere appears to become unstable enough on Friday afternoon to support afternoon convections especially across Southwest Montana. A significant low pressure system is expected to swing through the Northern Rockies Friday night. At the moment the best dynamics associated with this system will be across West Central Montana...but that could change. Settlement is good and eventually inevitable as spring like conditions seem to be appearing. The persistent weak layers established in early December and mid February are still present but with bridging from above are less likely to create triggered releases. The first "although" part of this statement is in regards to convex rolls on ridge tops with shallow deposits or just shallow despoits over rock shelfs or bands where the most recent persistent weak layer would not be buried as deep and could be triggered. The second "although" is concerning sudden and dramatic warming either from intense solar radiation or rain, creating cornice failure or free water percolation onto a deeply buried weak layer. A weather change on Friday night and into Saturday morning could possibly bring new snow accumulations, so be alert to how this new snow bonds with the current surface crust especially if the new snowfall is above moderate amounts. Please note that this avalanche advisory is our best interpretation of snowpack conditions and National Weather Service forecasts on the day the advisory is issued. Unanticipated weather changes such as wind, a marked temperature increase, or precipitation beyond forecast amounts can increase the avalanche danger. Local variations may also exist. The Glacier Country Avalanche Advisory will have only one advisory next week which will very likely be the last advisory for this winter season and that advisory will be on Friday, April 11th, 2008. Special Advisories would be posted as per normal operations that an aggressive weather events did develop.