Colorado Avalanche Information Center Advisory
ARCHIVED for Jan 22, 2024 in relation to a fatality that day
Posted for the Ophir/Telluride area (northern San Juan area)

Issued on:Sat, Jan 20, 2024 at 4:30 PM

Danger: Monday, Jan 22
3 - Considerable - All Elevations

You can trigger a large and dangerous avalanche on most slopes steeper than 30 degrees. Avalanches triggered from lower-angled terrain below steeper slopes or large avalanche paths could propagate uphill, creating a broader, more destructive slide. Wind-loaded, easterly-facing slopes have the deepest snowpack, and the largest avalanches observed on these aspects.

Stick to low-angled slopes. Smaller avalanches can become bigger problems if you get swept over a cliff, pushed through dense trees, or into a terrain trap. Know what terrain is around you and give steep slopes a wide buffer.

Avalanche Problems (1)

Persistent Slab

Aspect/Elevation:
  W-N-SE all elevations
  SW near and above treeline
  S above treeline

Likelihood: Likely

Size: Small to Large

What you need to know about these avalanches
Persistent Slab avalanches can be triggered days to weeks after the last storm. They often propagate across and beyond terrain features that would otherwise confine Wind and Storm Slab avalanches. In some cases they can be triggered remotely, from low-angle terrain or adjacent slopes. Give yourself a wide safety buffer to address the uncertainty.

Forecast Discussion
Issued on:Sat, Jan 20, 2024 at 4:30 PM

Southern Mountains Regional Discussion

The snowpack across the Southern Mountains is slowly healing from the most recent loading event. The few inches of snow that are forecast for Sunday will not change the overall avalanche hazard. The rapid rise in temperatures to finish the work week will likely help in the long term but shocked the snowpack Friday, and a natural cycle reported on southerly-facing alpine slopes. The most impressive avalanches near Kendall Peak above Silverton, where wide propagating avalanches, likely running on a melt-freeze crust below January snowfall, were reported by motorists traveling on Highway 550 a significant distance away. This type of avalanche activity highlights the sensitivity of the snowpack.

We continue to receive daily reports of avalanche activity, both natural and human-triggered. Close calls over the past week in the Ophir-Telluride area and on Wolf Creek Pass highlight the current dangerous avalanche conditions we are dealing with. The highest number of all slides occurred near and below the treeline, where slabs formed over a more fragile snowpack versus hard wind-stiffened surfaces and crust in the alpine. The largest avalanches reported thus far on easterly slopes.

Now that peak instability is past us, we enter the realm of uncertainty. Avalanche danger will stay elevated until data supports otherwise. Observers report less cracking and collapsing, but we are still far from a point where avalanches are stubborn to trigger, especially in the northwest corner of the forecast area. The depth of the snowpack varies in the Southern Mountains. Areas that currently have MODERATE (Level 2 of 5) danger below treeline had a deeper and stronger snowpack before this past storm. Talking with the forecast staff, one easy distinction between areas is foot penetration. If you step out of your skis/board/snowshoes or off your machine and sink to the ground, that snowpack is very weak and trending like the areas around Silverton, Telluride, or Rico. If you don't penetrate all the way to the ground, that area is less sensitive and deeper, like the La Plata's or near Wolf Creek Pass. No matter where you travel in the Southern Mountains, buried weak layers persist at the bottom of the snowpack and remain stressed from recent snow and wind loading.

It's important to make conservative terrain choices. Right now, slope angle is the name of the game. Know what slopes are around you and give steep slopes a wide buffer. Travel like Elmer Fudd chasing rabbits, moving with purpose, tiptoeing, and identifying suspect areas. If you have doubts about a slope, avoid it. If it looks steep, it is. The Persistent Slab avalanche problem we are dealing with is here to stay for now.