ARCHIVED Avalanche Forecast This is an archived text version of the advisory by the CAIC (state agency) in Colorado for points on the Wyoming border south of Battle Pass. It is archived for reference in relation to a fatal avalanche near Battle Pass in WY on Feb 9, 2024. The site of the incident is not far from the boundary of this advisory area. It should be noted that this advisory covers an area very close to the incident in question but does not include. Officially this would not be claimed to necessarily apply. It is also not known weather the group would have checked this as the closest official source of avalanche information, or whether they could extrapolate if necessary. There is an Information Exchange for the area in WY and it appears that CAIC personnel participate (and perhaps support) that exchange. Avalanche Forecast Issued on:Thu, Feb 8, 2024 at 5:30 AM Danger - Friday, Feb 09 3 - Considerable - All aspects, all elevations Heavy snow and strong winds are creating dangerous avalanche conditions. The most dangerous conditions are easterly slopes near ridgetop where strong winds are drifting snow into thick slabs. In these places, avalanches may run naturally and you can trigger a large, wide, and deep avalanche. In areas sheltered from the wind, be careful anywhere you find 12 inches or more of recent storm snow. Watch for shooting cracks and sounds of collapsing and move to low-angle slopes if you observe these warning signs. Weaker layers of snow are buried beneath the new snow. This is hard to identify without digging into the snow and looking. You'll need to either evaluate the snowpack carefully or stick to low-angle slopes to avoid avalanches. Avalanche Problems (2) Problem: Persistent Slab Aspect/Elevation: S Above treeline W, NW Below and Near treeline SE Near and Above treeline N-E All elevations Likelihood: Likely Size: Large to Very Large What you need to know about these avalanches Persistent Slab avalanches can be triggered days to weeks after the last storm. They often propagate across and beyond terrain features that would otherwise confine Wind and Storm Slab avalanches. In some cases they can be triggered remotely, from low-angle terrain or adjacent slopes. Give yourself a wide safety buffer to address the uncertainty. Problem: Storm Slab Problem Type Aspect/Elevation: All aspects, all elevations Likelihood: Likely Size: Small to Large What you need to know about these avalanches Storm Slab avalanches release naturally during snow storms and can be triggered for a few days after a storm ends. They often release at or below the trigger point, and are widespread throughout the terrain. Avoid them by waiting for the storm snow to stabilize. Discussion: Issued on:Wed, Feb 7, 2024 at 4:30 PM Lat: 40.990, Long: -107.096 Northern Mountains Regional Discussion Strong winds and over 20 inches of snow are forecast for the Flat Top Mountains and Park Range. This will raise the avalanche danger to HIGH, creating very dangerous conditions. When conditions are like this, travel in avalanche terrain is not recommended. Pay attention to what is above you and the slopes you are traveling on. Natural avalanches can run a long way into flat ground. Give a wide buffer around steep slopes. Snowfall amounts are lower in other areas, but the winds will build stiff slabs. Since our last storm, the winds have been relatively calm, and slabs over the weak layer buried last weekend remained soft (fist hard) with minimal cohesion. The weak layer hasn’t had much of a test, but the slab, which builds over the next 24 hours, will test the weak layer. In areas with a little more wind and thus firmer slabs, like Jones Pass and Berthoud Passes, avalanches have been running on buried weak layers, indicating what the weak layer may do in other areas once the slab has thickened. We are often asked why we haven’t listed Wind Slab avalanches when it is obviously windy. Our decision is often based on the step-down potential of an avalanche triggered at the surface. In the large polygon from Cameron Pass to Berthoud Pass and through Summit county, if you trigger an avalanche in the surface snow, it will likely step down to a deeper weak layer. An avalanche running on these deeper, weak layers is much more likely to kill you than a small surface slab. We want to focus folks on the more significant problem and not just have people trying to manage a wind slab when there is a potentially deadly weak layer. The eastern Front Range has a more robust, deeper snowpack. There is less potential for a step down to deeper weak layers in this area, so wind slabs are listed.